Mortgage Rate Predictions for the next 5 Years
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Mortgage rate predictions for the next 5 years
How long will mortgage rates remain in the mid- to upper-6% range? Mortgage interest rates are determined by many factors, a major one being the 10-year Treasury yield. At Yahoo Finance, we’ve designed a five-year mortgage rate forecast, built on a 10-year yield correlation, that provides some insight.
Read more: The best mortgage lenders right now
Mortgage rates are tuned to the government bond market
Mortgage rate forecasts might best be derived from 10-year Treasury note trends. While the two rates often track in the same direction, there is a spread between them that we will account for below.
First, let's understand where Treasury yields are headed in the next five years. We'll combine human analysis with data pulled from artificial intelligence to put together a prediction.
Economists’ 5-year forecast for Treasury rates
Michael Wolf is a global economist at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd. In June, the Deloitte Global Economics Research Center issued an updated U.S. economic forecast in which Wolf laid out the firm's Treasury yield expectations over the next five years.
"We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hover near 4.5% for the remainder of this year, despite a softening in economic data and a 50-basis-point cut from the Fed in the fourth quarter of 2025," he wrote. "The 10-year Treasury yield begins to decline slowly in 2026, falling to 4.1% by 2027 and remaining there through the end of 2029."
Let's chart that forecast.
That's not much movement. Goldman Sachs analysts agree, saying the 10-year Treasury will remain near 4.
Some advertisements and offers on this page are from advertisers who pay us. That may influence which products we write about, but it does not affect what we write about them. Here's an explanation of how we make money and our Advertiser Disclosure.
Mortgage rate predictions for the next 5 years
How long will mortgage rates remain in the mid- to upper-6% range? Mortgage interest rates are determined by many factors, a major one being the 10-year Treasury yield. At Yahoo Finance, we’ve designed a five-year mortgage rate forecast, built on a 10-year yield correlation, that provides some insight.
Read more: The best mortgage lenders right now
Mortgage rates are tuned to the government bond market
Mortgage rate forecasts might best be derived from 10-year Treasury note trends. While the two rates often track in the same direction, there is a spread between them that we will account for below.
First, let's understand where Treasury yields are headed in the next five years. We'll combine human analysis with data pulled from artificial intelligence to put together a prediction.
Economists’ 5-year forecast for Treasury rates
Michael Wolf is a global economist at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd. In June, the Deloitte Global Economics Research Center issued an updated U.S. economic forecast in which Wolf laid out the firm's Treasury yield expectations over the next five years.
"We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to hover near 4.5% for the remainder of this year, despite a softening in economic data and a 50-basis-point cut from the Fed in the fourth quarter of 2025," he wrote. "The 10-year Treasury yield begins to decline slowly in 2026, falling to 4.1% by 2027 and remaining there through the end of 2029."
Let's chart that forecast.
That's not much movement. Goldman Sachs analysts agree, saying the 10-year Treasury will remain near 4.